Rain and Grain: Elevation and Rainfall’s Impact on Maize Yield in Kenya

As one of the most important crops in agriculture, maize is a staple food supply and a major component of economies all over the world. Maize is the main staple food in Kenya; per capita consumption is 98kg per year. 

The increasing demand for maize due to the growing global population has prompted farmers to look for creative ways to increase yields and satisfy the growing demand. In the process of pursuing this goal, choosing superior varieties of maize seed becomes a critical component that can transform agricultural production.

This in-depth analysis delves into the field of maize farming, revealing the key to optimizing yields by recognizing elevation levels, and rainfall. Through rigorous spatial analysis, we hope to clarify the best types of maize seeds by unveiling optimal maize growing conditions in Kenya.

Objectives

This project aims to analyze the growth and yield of maize seeds in various regions of Kenya with differing elevation levels and rainfall patterns using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. By integrating spatial data on elevation and rainfall with agricultural data on maize yield, the project seeks to identify optimal conditions for maize cultivation and provide insights for improving agricultural productivity in Kenya.

Research Questions

Based on the project objectives, here are several research questions we aim to answer:

  1. Elevation and Maize Yield:
    • How does maize yield vary with changes in elevation across different regions of Kenya?
    • Are there specific elevation ranges that correlate with higher maize yields?
  2. Rainfall and Maize Yield:
    • What is the relationship between rainfall patterns and maize yield in various regions?
    • How do different levels of annual rainfall impact maize productivity?
  3. Combined Impact of Elevation and Rainfall:
    • How do the combined factors of elevation and rainfall affect maize yield?
    • Can we identify optimal combinations of elevation and rainfall for the highest maize yields?
  4. Regional Analysis:
    • Which regions in Kenya have the most favorable conditions for maize cultivation based on elevation and rainfall?
    • Are there regions with suboptimal conditions that still achieve high maize yields? If so, what factors contribute to their success?

Initial Hypothesis

Elevation and rainfall significantly influence maize yields in Kenya, with optimal maize production occurring at moderate elevation levels and regions receiving adequate rainfall. Specific regions with favorable elevation and rainfall combinations will be identified as high-yield zones. 

Methodology

Data Collection and Preprocessing

  • We obtained STRM data for elevation mapping.
  • We acquired rainfall data from meteorological sources.
  • We collect maize yield data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development.
  • We cleaned and preprocessed the data to ensure accuracy and consistency.

GIS Mapping

Agroecological Zones in Kenya
Elevation and Annual Rainfall
Rainfall in Different Seasons
Elevation and Maize Yield:
Rainfall and Maize Yield:
Regional Analysis:
Regional Analysis: High Yield Regions
Combined Impact of Elevation and Rainfall on Maize Yield:
Zonal Statistics: Elevation and Maize Yield
Zonal Statistics: Rainfall and Maize Yield

Results and Findings

In 2020, Kenya’s maize production was at 3.13 million tonnes.  Based on the elevation levels and rainfall, the regions with the optimal conditions for maize cultivation are the Rift Valley and Western parts of Kenya. 

Elevation and Maize Yield: We confirmed that maize yields were declining at high levels in areas with low elevation levels. The maize yields in these regions were below 1 metric tonne per hectare. were 

Rainfall and Maize Yield: Rainfall or climate variability on maize yields was predominantly negative in regions with low rainfall. Arid and semi-arid counties suffer from significant climate variability which has huge implications for maize yields and food security. 

Combined Impact of Elevation and Rainfall on Maize Yield: Maize yield and the associated elevation statistics (mean, minimum, and maximum), allowed for a clear comparison and analysis of how elevation ranges correlate with maize yields. We confirmed that there is a correlation between moderate elevation and adequate rainfall, indicating both factors create optimal conditions for high maize yield. 

Spatial Analysis: Regions with favorable rainfall at high elevation levels have a high maize yield in comparison to regions with low rainfalls at lower elevation levels. This shows that the majority of the maize production in Kenya comes from Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Nandi, Mt. Elgon, and Bungoma with an average of 3.4 metric tonnes per hectare.

Conclusions

Elevation Influence: Maize yield varies with elevation.  There is an optimal elevation range where maize yield is maximized, with yields decreasing at both lower and higher elevations due to factors such as temperature variations, soil quality, and other environmental conditions.

Rainfall Influence: Maize yield varies with rainfall. There is an optimal rainfall range that supports the highest maize yields. Too little rainfall results in water stress and reduced yields, while too much rainfall could cause waterlogging and other negative effects on crop growth. 

Combined Effect of Elevation and Rainfall: The combination of elevation and rainfall has a synergistic effect on maize yield. Regions with a combination of moderate elevation and adequate rainfall will have the highest maize yields, indicating that both factors together create optimal growing conditions.

Regional Differences: Different regions in Kenya exhibit varying maize yields due to distinct elevation and rainfall patterns. Specific regions with favorable elevation and rainfall combinations will be identified as high-yield zones.

Impact of Climate Variability: Variability in rainfall patterns over the years significantly impacts maize yields. Periods of abnormal rainfall (droughts or excessive rainfall) will correlate with lower maize yields, highlighting the importance of consistent rainfall. 

Agricultural Practices: Improved agricultural practices can mitigate some of the negative effects of suboptimal elevation and rainfall. Regions with suboptimal conditions but higher-than-expected yields will be identified, possibly due to effective agricultural practices like irrigation or soil conservation.

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